2-1+1=2 right?
When I first heard that Wainwright was out for the season I thought the Central Division would be out of reach for the Cardinals. But the more I think about it no one pitcher has to replace Adam Wainwright. Kyle McClellan will get his first year of being in the starting rotation and reports this spring sound like he can fill the 5th spot adequately, but he is no Adam Wainwright, and he doesn’t have to be. Now I’m playing with numbers here and it is pure speculation but, because of Kyle Lohse’s terrible season last year, all McClellan and Lohse have to do is be better than Wainwright and Lohse last year.
Wainwright 2010
20 Wins
11 Losses
213 K’s
56 Walks
62 Earned Runs
230 Innings Pitched Lohse 2010
4 Wins
8 Losses
54 K’s
35 Walks
67 Earned Runs
92 Innings Pitched Combined 2010
24 Wins
19 Losses
267 K’s
91 Walks
129 Earned Runs
322 Innings Pitched
Now if my thinking is correct then the Cardinals need to hope they can get 24 Wins, 267 Strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA out of Lohse and McClellan. This would all be easier is Kyle Lohse could pitch the way he did in 2008. Lohse was 15-8 with 119 Strikeouts and a 3.78 ERA; I think the way McClellan pitched in the spring we can hope for 9 wins out of him. Now I know that this is not a perfect comparison because Lohse only appeared in 18 games, but this is also the first full season with Jake Westbrook, which should also pickup some of the stats put up by Wainwright last year. This idea in my head doesn’t make me think the Cardinals will run away with the division, but if someone jokes that Kyle McClellan is half the pitcher that Adam Wainwright is, they will be right, but that might be good enough.
