Who’s On First? The Chicago Cubs Options at 1B for 2011
The most glaring hole in the Cubs roster for 2011 (not counting the “hole” that is created by paying Soriano and Zambrano $18 million each) is first base. This should be a really interesting offseason and how the Cubs fill the void at first base should go along ways into revealing their strategy for the near future.
First, let’s take a look at the five guys I believe are the most likely to be manning first base next season and then we can discuss the scenarios:
5) Paul Konerko
The 34 year old Konerko will be a free agent as his 5-year, $60 million contract is up at the end of the season. Konerko is just three home runs away from ending with at least 40 home runs for the third time in his career. A career .280 hitter, Konerko has currently matched his career high .313 batting average this season. The four time All-Star has played in Chicago for the last 12 seasons and may enjoy staying in the city if the White Sox don’t bring him back. He would give the Cubs another big bat in the lineup, though the Cubs probably aren’t looking to add another high priced, older bat to go along with Ramirez and Soriano.
4) Adam Dunn
If the Cubs decide to go the free agent route for a first baseman, here’s where you have to believe the favorite lies. The Cubs and Dunn have been linked for years and he would immediately bring the kind of left handed presence that Hendry has desired over the years. If the Cubs decide to go with Dunn, they will be forfeiting getting into the race for Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder, etc. If the Cubs could sign Dunn for around $10 million a year, it could end up being a huge bargain.
3) Adam LaRoche
Here’s a name that hasn’t been talked about much. LaRoche is a poor man’s Adam Dunn and it seems like he’s a free agent every year. The 30 year old lefty isn’t in the elite class of first baseman in the league, but he may be the best of the rest. Over his seven year career he has averaged a .272 BA with 26 Home Runs and 93 RBI. LaRoche may be a good fit if the Cubs are looking for a one year option until the big free agent first basemen hit the market in 2012.
2) Tyler Colvin
The reason why Colvin makes a lot of sense at 1B is because the Cubs have 4 every day outfielders signed for next season already in Soriano (signed through 2014!!!), Byrd (2011-12), Fukudome (2011), and Colvin. Assuming Colvin doesn’t have any more run-ins with bat shards, he seems to have shown that he can play every day in the Major Leagues. Colvin could use some plate discipline, but his line of .251 AVG with 20 HR and 58 RBI in just 375 at bats is a real good first season—and he didn’t even play full time for a month or so. Colvin isn’t going to be the long term answer at 1B, but if he can fill in for 2011 it will allow him and Fukudome to play on a more regular basis. Not that Fukudome playing on a regular basis is the goal, but…
1) Xavier Nady
Ok, here’s my idea (even though I hate it). Let me start off by saying I really don’t want Nady playing 1B, let alone back with the Cubs in 2011. Nady has actually hit well since Derrek Lee was traded to the Braves, just without any power whatsoever. If you sign Nady to another one year, small deal for 2011- you can let Nady/Colvin split time at 1B and when Nady is at first, Colvin can give Kosuke days off.
Ok, now for the why’s.
Do I want Xavier Nady playing 1B for the Cubs? No. I’d rather have Adam Dunn. Or Mark Grace.
But more than Adam Dunn, I’d like to see Adrian Gonzalez at 1B for the Cubs. He’s a free agent in 2012. Gonzalez will give you a .285, 30+ HR, 100 RBI season every year while playing pretty good defense. And he’s left handed.
He’s going to cost a pretty penny though. If he were the only free agent first baseman in 2012, he would probably command a Ryan Howard-esque contract of around $25 million. But, he’s not. The market will also be saturated with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
Pujols will probably stay with the Cardinals, but both Fielder and Gonzalez will most likely price themselves out of San Diego and Milwaukee. In fact, Gonzalez would have changed teams this year already if the Padres weren’t in contention and the Brewers tried to trade Fielder but were underwhelmed with the market at the time.
Fielder would also be a good option for the Cubs except that Scott Boras has already said that Ryan Howard’s $25 million a year contract will be the starting point for Fielder’s next contract. Have fun with that.
The good news for the Cubs is that the Yankees seem pretty set with Mark Teixiera at 1B for a long, long time. They’ll also have to open the pocket books for Robinson Cano in 2012- which shouldn’t be much of a problem for them. The Mets also would have the money, but they are pretty high on Ike Davis right now.
Regardless of where else Gonzalez could sign (Angels?), the Cubs should actually have the money to make the splash that they will probably need after what will probably be another disappointing season in 2011. Which is another reason why to wait for Gonzalez.
Except for some bullpen additions and possibly one starting pitcher, the Cubs are going to look pretty much the same next year. Aside from first base, the only other possible question in the lineup is whether or not Blake DeWitt gets to play every day. After that, it will be the usual lineup with Soto, Castro, Ramirez, Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, and Colvin.
Obviously the Cubs haven’t been able to do much with that lineup this year, and even though they should play better next season- what does that mean? A .500 club would be a big improvement from this season.
So here’s what I would do for 2011:
Re-sign Nady and platoon him with Colvin at 1B for one year. Spend the money we’ll have available on Cliff Lee and shoring up the bullpen. After 2011, the Cubs will clear some of their big, bad contracts when they say sianara to Fukudome, Ramirez, and Silva and will only have one year left on Zambrano and Dempster’s deals. Then we’d be getting out of the woods!
The 2012 Cubs would look like this:
C- Soto
1B- Gonzalez
2B- DeWitt?
SS- Castro
3B- ??
LF- Soriano
CF- Byrd
RF- Colvin
SP- Cliff Lee
SP- Ryan Dempster
SP- Carlos Zambrano
SP- Randy Wells
SP- ??
CL- Carlos Marmol
I like that core a lot more. If the Cubs could add a pretty good 3B, now we’re getting somewhere. That would set them up for some good years down the road as well.
Of course none of this will happen and the Cubs will sign Adam Dunn to a 5 year- $100 million contract in the offseason and go on to lose 90 games in 2011.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
sharp writing and suggestions jm. not sure that i would be thrilled with a platoon at first base, but if it doesn’t work out the cubs lose more games. that would be quite alright.
Very good insight, I think there are some alternatives though that would be more viable and allow the Cubs to be competitive next year as well as down the road. First Hendry and Cubs management need to sit down with Soriano, Dempster, Fukodome, Ramirez and Zambrano along with their agents and discuss getting rid of the full no-trade clauses and at least get them to be all partial no-trade clauses. Next they should look into trade options for Dempster and Fukodome which would alleviate around $43 million off the books over two years and take back whatever High-A prospects and AA prospects they can which can be used for future trades. If we are going to make a run throw the money saved from dumping those two salaries at Cliff Lee for 3 years and you have a #1 left handed pitcher and a rejuvenated #1 right hander in Zambrano. Since we are paying for Bradley one more year but getting money for Silva that is a wash plus he comes off the books next year and he was doing well until he hit a wall. Better conditioning for him in the off-season could have him pitching better next year into the second half. IF the Cubs really want to take a chance and get risky see if they can find a taker in the American League for Soriano for more prospects if say the Cubs pay the first two years of the contract outright and then the new team takes the last two? Will someone go for it, maybe not but you have to try plus even though the Cubs have to eat $38 million it will save them down the road plus he is gone and now you can have room for Colvin in left field and also to get Jackson up plus allow the Cubs to either bring up someone else or trade for say a Upton from Tampa Bay or Young from Arizona. The Cubs have quite a few #3, 4 and 5 starters on the club and in the minors so I think our rotation would be set plus if they intend to stretch out Cashner and Samardjia the possibility is there for a high #2 and high #3 type starter so we would have more depth and trade material. We have an upcoming draft to add more to the club which is a bonus. Our bullpen pitched extremely well at the end of the year after gaining experience and looks to be a strength moving forward with plenty of depth there to also have as trade material. We have a couple of young catchers coming up and middle infielders so what the Cubs lack is corner infielders. Why not take some of our abundance in pitching, catching and middle infielders and make a run at Cabrera from Detroit or Gonzalez from San Diego, what is it going to hurt to see about the possibility? If they cannot be pried free then go after Dunn for 3 years and keep letting all the talent we have continue to grow and the Cubs can still be competitive.
Cubs should target Adam Dunn and Javier Vasquez.
I love the idea of signing Dunn to a 3-year deal. We need a left-handed thumper in the middle, and if Aramis plays even close to what he did in the second half, a 2-3-4-5 of Castro-Ramirez-Dunn-Byrd would be fantastic. Another starting pitcher is needed, but with the emergence of the bullpen and the return of Angel Guzman, there’s no reason the Cubs can’t compete in a weak Central.
No reason Zambrano can’t recapture the success of the last half of this year going into the next two years. Vitters is coming up in the minors, no reason he can’t be a viable third baseman. Add Adrian Gonzalez, and you’ve got yourself a pretty good team in 2012
Those all very intriguing options. I am not so sure If I would rank Nady as the number one option although he has impressed me since taking over for D-Lee. Plus, you can’t argue with your idea of going after Cliff Lee with the money you would saving from not signing Dunn. Also, Adrian Gonzalez is the much better option, even if we have to wait till 2012.
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Please contact me at….cubbiescrib@gmail.com
2011 Opening Day Lineup idea
Castro-SS
Byrd-CF
LaRoche-1B
Ramirez-3B
Soto-C
Colvin-RF
Soriano-LF
DeWitt-2B
Pitcher
I think the SMART thing to do is sign Left-Hander Adam LaRoche to a one-year contract in 2011, which could save the Cubs a good deal of money, and in the 2012 season, LOOK OUT cause here comes Adrian Gonzalez.
I wouldn’t mind seeing LaRoche play 1st for the Cubs next year, I’m just afraid he won’t sign a one year deal. I don’t want to do anything that would get in the way of signing Adrian Gonzalez.
Great post, John.
What about Lance Berkman? He’s still got something left in the tank.
The Cubs may be able to trade for Adrian Gonzalez this winter. Not making the playoffs probably makes that an easier sell to community, especially as the Peavy trade looks like a big win.
If that doesn’t work, I like the idea of signing Victor Martinez and platooning him with Colvin at 1st and Soto at Catcher. (http://i-tell-ya-steve.blogspot.com/2010/08/derrek-lees-replacement.html)
Actually, though, the reason I even commented was to ask if we can please stop penciling-in Randy Wells for future seasons. Perhaps, I’m being tough on him, but I don’t think his position on the 2011 rotation should be guaranteed, let alone 2012. It’s really terrible that the Cubs are not increasing their payroll, while they increase revenue.
I actually just mentioned that same thing to a friend last night while watching the Yankees game- one year of Berkman would be a decent stop-gap until we can throw all the money we have at Gonzalez. I certainly wouldn’t want to overpay in a trade for Gonzalez if you coudld get him for free (well, besides the $100 million contract) after next season.
I also am a little worried about Wells, though he did bounce back towards the end of the season. The problem is, unless you’d rather have Silva in the rotation I think you have to keep Wells in it. There are worse #4 starters in the league. I think he’s ok to pencil in for now, but next year will be big as far as figuring out what he can be counted on for. Perhaps he could be moved to San Diego in a package for Gonzalez- he’d probably put up decent numbers in that ballpark.
Bobby A,
Increase payroll? Really? You do realize the Cubs have the 3rd highest payroll in all of baseball don’t you?
1) NY Yankees $206,738,389
2) Boston Red Sox $160,913,333
3) Chicago Cubs $146,609,000
It’s not a matter of more payroll, it’s a matter of being smart with your money… and Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Koske Fukudome all making between 14 mil and 19 mil per season is awful. (Way to go Hendry!)
I like how you matter of factly talk about the Cliff Lee signing. Is it iminent? Seriously, how can you just pencil him in there. The payroll is already bloated, and you think you just sign Lee then Gonzales without a blink of an eye. Get realistic.
I don’t think I ever stated that the Cubs are going to sign Lee. The point of the article was what I would do. And yes, the payroll is up there but there is breathing room coming. I’m sure the Cubs could try and fit Cliff Lee in their budget if the price was right. There’s no Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly, or Ryan Theriot in the budget for 2011 and then Kosuke, Ramirez, and Silva come off the books after next season. That’s a lot of cash freeing up.
One problem, my man – Rickets wants to lower payroll.
Add in dollar amounts to your plan, and compare it to their 2010 payroll.
The Cubs will not sign Lee. There is no chance of the “price being right” because Lee will be the number one most desired free agent pitcher this offseason. The Yankees will be involved and he will sign a massive contract that the Cubs want no part of.
I love Adrian Gonzalez and to a lesser extent, Fielder. I don’t think either makes it to free agency. In fact, I think Fielder has played his last game in Milwaukee. I don’t think the Cubs have the prospects SD and Milwaukee will be looking for in return for these guys. So, I’m not sure if either is an option. I’d love for them to try and pry Gonzalez from SD.
The Cubs need to trade Zambrano while his value is renewed. I also think they should trade Marmol. Mediocre-to-bad teams don’t need good closers (and Marmol’s walk rate scares me anyway). Teams typically over pay for closers and the Cubs can develop another one in house when they are closer to contending. Through trades and drafts, the Cubs need to load up on high-quality prospects and then supplement those guys with free agent acquisitions once all the big contracts (save Soriano) are off the books.
Oh, and Ricketts needs to fire Hendry. I don’t want him trading for prospects OR spending more money.
First off. As far as the rotation goes. Zambrano will more than likely be back. I dont see anyone wanting to take on that contract this offseason. If you can get Lee of course thats the guy to get but the Cubs dont have the money to get in a bidding war with the Yankees. Considering the season he had this year Javier Vasquez is a very intriguing option. In the NL he has been a solid starter and perhaps on a one year with an option deal could be had relatively cheaply. So the rotation would be like this Zambrano, Vasquez, Dempster, Silva, Wells.
Al righties but still a solid starting 5. and if someone goes down or starts throwing up beachballs you have a couple options down at triple A.
As for First Base. There are 3 options.
option 1 is going with Adam Dunn on what would probably have to be a 3 or 4 year deal. Kinda scary considering he has to play defense and he turns 31 next month. which would make him 34 or 35 at the end of the contract which is what we have all been screaming about already. overpaying/giving out too many years to older players. He doesnt move well now. how well do you think he will move at 6’6 280 in 4 years?
Option 2 Trading for a proven 1B. Most likely target would be Gonzalez. It would cost at least 3 high level prospects and an extension. Not to mention that you would have to outbid someone like Boston who has more available in their farm system than we do. But this would be my preference.
Option 3 One year stopgap to get to next years FA period. I like LaRoche. Aubrey Huff and Russell Branyan could also be in the mix. But there is risk here too. The big 3 1B on the market next year are Gonzalez, Fielder, and Pujols. Odds are good that Gonzalez gets traded before he makes it to FA. Pujols will get his extension cause do you seriously think STL would let him walk away? So that leaves Fielder by himself with Scott Boras. Can you say 130mil?
What i would hope is that they can get AGon from SD. and then go out and get a couple arms for the pen. Balfour, Crain, Benoit, Guerrier, Putz, Qualls, and Frasor any 2 of those with perhaps Downs or Rhodes to help Marshall from the left side and dump Grabow.
Any thoughts?