5 Pressing Questions for the Cards
Since 100,000 people come to Salem looking for spiritual experiences in October, our church does a ton of creative evangelistic, social justice and hospitality outreach during the month of October. In 2004 and 2007 our outreach calendar came into significant conflict with my other religion. Since I made the pilgrimage in the latter, but not in the former, the religions are currently tied at 1 win apiece. I was hoping that 2010 would produce a tie breaker but, alas, that is not to be the case.
Now as the summer fades and the Cardinals and Cubs find themselves on the same footing for the first time all year, the birds are facing at least 5 pressing questions:
1. Will the Cardinals Resign Pujols?
The short answer is, I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else besides El Hombre does. However, as long as #5’s tenure is uncertain, his contract has to be the primary focus of this team.
Mozeliak’s comments this weekend that the Cardinals payroll is likely to increase over the next two or three seasons is yet another indication that the team is working on a way to keep El Hombre in the fold. I want to believe the Pujols’ commitment to the Cardinals’ legacy, his desire to follow in The Man’s footsteps and his rather unfortunate red state affinities will encourage him to stay.
But let’s be honest. All of those reasons are sentimental and thinking about Pujols leaving the Lou for an overpaid, east coast softball team makes me sick. So let’s hope for the sake of all that is holy, he stays
2. Whose team is it anyway?
In his 14 years in St. Louis Tony LaRussa has stood on equal ground with the management. While many teams have followed the A’s lead in exalting the role of the GM and reducing the manager to a mere functionary, DeWitt & Co. have worked beside and often deferred to TLR. In the past, DeWitt has basically suggested that TLR can manage the team as long as he likes and today cardscribe Bernie Miklasz confirmed that TLR will not be pushed out.
That being said, while DeWitt & Co. aren’t ready to topple the icon, they are clearly more focused in player development, protecting young players like Rasmus and relying on the farm for depth than they have been in years past. Given TLR’s commitment to veterans (Aaron Miles anyone?) and his questionable track record with young talent, it seems like the management and managing philosophy are growing apart.
Will TLR leave? If you read the www.stltoday.com tea leaves, that’s appearing less and less likely. My guess is that his connection to El Hombre and his refusal to retreat with a whimper will convince him to stay. Thus, I am predicting a leadership détente for at least one more season, but an organizational shift is undoubtedly on the horizon.
3. If LaRussa goes…
In addition to internal candidates like Jose Oquendo, I would like to see the Cardinals consider Larry Dierker.
In addition to his successful record with the Astros, by most accounts Dierker is a more laid back leader who is open to new approaches and does not shy away from statistical analysis.
After TLR’s departure, this team would benefit from a slight culture shift. I have a sneaking suspicion that Dierker could bring this shift to bear and I think it would be worthwhile to give him a shot.
If he fails, we could always move him up to the booth. Not that anyone ever tires of Al Hrabosky’s tone-deaf, barely stifled conservatism or wonders whether Shannon’s days would be better spent recruiting bartenders for the porch.
4. The Middle Infield
Derrick Goold beat me to the punch on this one with his excellent piece last week. As Derrick suggests, using statistics I could never calculate, the Cardinals’ middle infield is a huge area of concern.
In order to sign a respectable fourth starter (or contract killers who can exchange lohse for insurance money) and reserve enough revenue for Pujols the Cardinals cannot replace both Schumaker and Ryan. They’ll need to find a cost-effective, yet adequate replacement for one of the two – which will be difficult on account of this year’s class – and hope that David Freese can stay healthy and return to 2010 early season form.
I don’t have any answers for the Cardinals here, but I sure as hell am hoping that Mo does.
5. The Back End of the Pitching Staff
When Penny went down in late May, the Cardinals’ rotation was left horribly exposed. Garcia’s exceptional season and Westbrook’s above average performance over the last two months mitigated this weakness to the degree that we could still be fighting for a pennant if our aces hadn’t stumbled over their last 15 starts. But Westbrook is a free agent at the end of the year, we still have to pay Lohse (barring a contract killing) and we don’t appear to have pitching prospects to fill the gaps. Ideas anyone?
Although the Cardinals will return a solid core of Carpenter/Wainwright/Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus/Molina, we cannot complete with this many holes in the infield and questions in the rotation. That, in addition to the uncertain state of leadership, suggests that this will be an offseason to remember.
14 Comments
Trackbacks/Pingbacks
- Shameless Self-Promotion « The Inconsistent Adopted - [...] In Uncategorized on September 20, 2010 at 2:28 pm I’ve banged another double off The Outfield Ivy. Would ...
- Top 10 Rap & Hip Hop Hits: 2010 Cardinals Edition | The Outfield Ivy - [...] is reality, as they say. My friend Jeff Gentry spoke about this yesterday when he listed the 5 Pressing ...
Ok, the Repent America link was a joke. But our church, The Gathering in Salem (www.salemgathering.com), does interact with them on a yearly basis. As you can imagine, they’re a barrel of fun.
I think this offseason is going to be huge for where the Cardinals are headed over the next five years or so. I still do not see how the Cardinals will be able to afford to keep Pujols. It seems like it could be a disaster either way. If he walks, you upset a large percentage of the fan base, probably lose some attendance, and lose a ton of merchandise/advertising profits. If he stays, he will take up at least $25 million in payroll a season (if not more). Between Pujols and Holliday then, you are then looking at around $45 million for those two. Can they also afford to keep Wainwright in a couple of years? Rasmus?
It could get interesting.
I think the Cardinals will have to increase the payroll to at least $110m (this year they were at $95 per Cot’s) in order to keep Pujols. I think they will do that.
Rasmus is under team control until 2015, Wainwright until 2012 (w/affordable club options for 2012 and 2013).
If the apocalypse occurs the merch and advert hits would be significant, but I don’t expect attendance to flag significantly. The Cards have drawn 3 million fans per year every year since 1998 with the exception of 2003 when they missed the mark by 90K fans (see: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/cardatte.shtml).
By and large, Cards fans root for the laundry. We aren’t going anywhere (unlike some Cubs fans I know who have whored themselves to other historically underperforming west coast clubs).
If by “over-paid softball team” you mean the Yankees or the Mets, than I would have to agree. As far as Pujols goes, I don’t think there is any greater conquest than to get him to a long term deal. No offense, but the birds lineup would be reduced down to a below average offenseive team without his bat and presence in the lineup. No way do Rasmus and Holliday produce like this year without him. All that aside I do have to say, I’d love to see him in Boston.
I don’t think it’s an all or nothing situation. Which option would you rather have?
Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus
-or-
Holliday, Rasmus, and two other really good players (Dunn/Crawford, etc)?
Both options would take up about the same amount of budget money. Feelings aside, I think two other proven players would be more valuable than throwing $30 million at Albert.
Of course Cub fans want Albert to leave St. Louis…..i understand.
john mark, i’m not sure they will have to throw 30 mil at albert. if they are asked to, and can’t, i can see your point about signing crawford and dunn. but the odds of landing two top tier free agents in a middling class, are minimal.
also, i think it would be difficult to lose the intangibles pujols brings to the organization (i.e., leadership, aggression, promotion of the sinners’ prayer) and the ancillary dollars you mentioned before (merchandising, marketing, etc.).
MO has painted the team into the corner with the Holliday signing. 45 million for two players is not going to leave much for the remaining roster. Give me Carl Crawford and two new middle infielders (Stephen Drew and Ben Zobrist) and a new manager, and the team will be better off than the current Pujols and LaRussa cardinals.
Stinkey, I agree with you (if i had a dollar for every time i’ve said that…).
Exactly why I hope the Cardinals do re-sign Pujols. It’s odd to think about the Cardinals being a better team without Pujols, but I think it’s true. Baseball isn’t like basketball where you just need one or two superstars on a team. Pujols may have priced himself out of being helpful to a mid-market team.
There’s always a “window” for baseball teams depending on their salaries. I think that window has passed for the Cardinals until the next batch of players come through. If the Cardinals sign Pujols for anything more than right at $20 million a year, I think they will have trouble filling out a roster that allows them to contend for a World Series title.
Think about it this year- they had everything going for them. Wainwright winning 20, Carpenter not hurt, Garcia pitching like an ace, Rasmus hitting 25 home runs, Holliday hitting 25 HR’s and driving in 100 runs, Pujols hitting over 40 HR’s- and they still will end up around 10 games out of first in the weakest division in the NL. They did have some injuries (like every team), but I just don’t seeing them being better next year with this same core.
I hate to admit it, but I think you are both likely right. The Cards can’t spend more than $20 mil a year on Pujols since MO did outbid himself for Holliday.
If they are going to head in a new direction, they should sign a strong middle infielder or other run producer this season so that they can make one final run with El Hombre.
If they’re out of the running by mid-season, they could always flip Pujols for one or two excellent players.
JM – I wouldn’t get too excited about the Cards current position with or without Pujols. Either way they are not in as dire straights as the Cubs, who have $102 committed to that crap roster before they do anything this off season.
Oh, I have already mailed in 2011 for the Cubs: http://theoutfieldivy.com/2010/08/23/wait-until%e2%80%a6-2012/
By the start of 2012, they will have been done with Lee, Ramirez, and Fukudome’s contracts and only have one year left on Zambrano/Soriano. That will leave them with plenty of money to spend (hopefully wisely) on a big name 1B (Fielder or Gonzalez?), a SP, and hopefully some sort of 3B- though as of now, there really aren’t any who will be on the market that winter worth anything.
My suggestion has been to sign Nady and platoon him and Colvin at 1B for next year with Colvin playing the OF positions to spell Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome on their days off. That way, Colvin is a full time player next season and we’re saving money for a 1B in 2012. I’d also make a run at Cliff Lee to shore up the rotation for the next 5 years.
The Cubs are going to be in a much better position at the end of next season, but it’s very possible they will have a really rough 2011.
interesting suggestions. in light of those weighted contracts i still can’t believe hendry has a job. do you think he survives the offseason? if not, who would you like to take the gm helm?
i definitely think hendry is back. i know he’s given out some big contracts in the past, but i’m still a hendry supporter. he has come out ahead on almost all trades and at least he was willing to go out and sign some big guys. yeah, they never won their title- but i think too many cubs fans forget how awful this team was in the 80′s and 90′s. at least since around 1998, this has been a team that the fans expect to win the division every year. when was the last time we could say that?
we’re a big market club and we are finally spending like one. not all contracts are going to work out well. soriano’s was pretty crazy- but at the time it looked like a signing that was going to put them over the top for a long time. soriano was a 40/40 guy. the money/years wasn’t necessarily the mistake. soriano got hurt and never has been the same. if he was still a 40/40 guy or even a 30/30 guy, the cubs lineup would have been dramatically different over the last few years.
with the market and economy the way it is, hendry will have an opportunity to potentially get some bargains soon. if he signs another round of duds, then i’ll call for his head. but the careers of derrek lee and aramis ramirez are hendry’s doing and the cubs would never have had the success and the opportunity to win it all like they did a couple of times in the last decade without those two.
Well reasoned defense. However, over the last 6 years they have finished in 4th place or lower 3 times. That’s a lot of cheese for poor performances and their make-up, especially this year, was questionable from the get.